UFC Light Heavyweight Forecast
by E. Spencer Kyte on February 09, 2010
doesn't have to. Merit is beaten down by marketability all the time in the UFC (and combat sports in general); it's why Frankie Edgar is fighting B.J. Penn and not Gray Maynard, and it's the reason Brock Lesnar fought for the UFC Heavyweight title after going 1-1.

If I'm learning to deal with it, you need to too.

So with the reasoning behind Randy's inclusion in the next UFC Light Heavyweight division title fight figured out - or at the very least the case for such an inclusion well-stated - let's shift our focus to the four men making up the two big fights on the horizon.

Four fighters, four possible outcomes.

Since Lyoto Machida is still the champion, we'll begin with him winning the rematch at UFC 113. There has to be some kind of perk to being champion...

Scenario #1: Machida vs. Rashad Evans

Yeah, we saw this fight a year earlier, and it ended with Rashad Evans immortalized in one of the greatest knockout faces of all-time. Unless steeped in controversy, the UFC doesn't do quick rematches. Essentially, wins for Machida and Evans makes a Randy Couture title fight all the more likely.

Scenario #2: Machida vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson

This fight could most certainly work, as some would argue that Jackson never should have lost the belt that is wrapped around Machida's waist in the first place. However, by the time Jackson takes on Evans at UFC 114, it will have been well over a year since "Rampage" last fought and won against Keith Jardine, and that win was ugly.

Personally, I don't think Dana White will want to do much more to annoy B.A. Baracus, and denying him a title shot following a win over the former champion would fall into that category, but there is only so much time left on the "Randy Couture as Contender" clock, and as good a draw as "Rampage" is, he's no Randy Couture.

Promise a victorious "Rampage" the next shot, maybe even make it the return trip to Memphis and let him film a movie in between. Chances are he'd still be fighting Machida anyway, so why not take a few extra months to try and figure out "The Dragon" and his elusive style?

Scenario #3: Rua vs. Evans

To me, this one holds the least interest of any of the possible permutations. Evans was picked apart by Machida, who was then (twice?) picked apart by Rua. Following the flow, what then would make you think that Evans wouldn't suffer the same fate?

Of course, we all know MMA math doesn't work (Chael Sonnen confirmed that again Saturday) and Evans is a much different fighter than Machida, but the initial reaction could fall somewhere in that territory and with Evans's much-maligned performance against fellow Muay Thai practitioner Thiago Silva at UFC 109, it might take more than a championship belt to raise the level of interest in this fight.

Bringing Couture into the mix, the UFC would certainly play up the "Shogun was considered the best 205 in the world before coming to the UFC, while Randy is an icon in the sport and has always been great at this weight" angle, in addition to the aforementioned "Evans lost bad to the dude Rua just beat (twice)" argument.

Scenario #4: Rua vs. Jackson

Welcome to the one-and-only way Randy Couture does not fight for the Light Heavyweight title the next time he steps...

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HOW WILL THE THIAGO ALVES VS. MARTIN KAMPMANN FIGHT END AT UFC ON FX 2?
Alves def. Kampmann via TKO/KO
Alves def. Kampmann via submission
Alves def. Kampmann via decision
Kampmann def. Alves via TKO/KO
Kampmann def. Alves via submission
Kampmann def. Alves via decision
TAKE ANOTHER POLL!