Look at it this way: Emerson got beat standing by Rafael dos Anjos, not exactly a vaunted striker. Nover has the power to knock "The Saint" out and the submission skills to make him tap on the ground. One of the two will happen.

Melvin Guillard (22-8-2) vs. Ronnys Torres (14-1-0)

Tomorrow morning, a bunch of people are going to be talking about Ronnys Torres, at which point, I'll remind them that I was talking about him at the start of the year when he made my 10 for '10 Prospects list.

Anyone that can compete at 155 and has a victory over light heavyweight (and Black House associate) Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante gets my attention. Add in that Melvin Guillard is extremely allergic to submission defense and  you have the makings for a minor upset in Torres's long-awaited UFC debut.

Mac Danzig (18-7-1) vs. Justin Buchholz (8-4-0)

This feels like another TUF 6 fight for Mac Danzig to me, which is good, because he steamrolled through TUF 6 to get to where he is now.

Everything Buchholz does, Danzig does a little better. He's bigger, stronger, a more sound technical fighter and has faced better competition.

In all honesty, I don't know why many of us are so hard on Danzig. His fight with Jim Miller was a war, and his two losses before that are a questionable split decision with Josh Neer away from being the same as Nathan Diaz, and no one is calling for Diaz to get dropped.

Matt Serra (9-6-0) vs. Frank Trigg (19-7-0)

Every time people tell me that Serra is going to win this fight, I can only muster one word: Really?

Trigg's wrestling is strong enough to defend any takedown attempts Serra has to offer, his boxing is solid, and, unlike Serra, he's actually won a fight or two in the last two years.

Here's the other thing: Matt Serra is in no way going to get cut if he loses this fight. He might hang'em up, but the dude is too much of a personality and character for Dana & Co. to drop him. Trigg, on the other hand, has been dumped before and might be dumped again if he loses this fight.

Who really has more to prove: the guy who can ride the greatest upset in MMA history into the sunset, or the guy who has been cut before and was almost cut after his last loss?

Demian Maia (11-1-0) vs. Dan Miller (11-2-0)

This one will be a lot more difficult than some of the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu instructional classes Maia's taught inside the Octagon so far, but the end result is going to be the same: Winner, Demian Maia, by submission.

Miller has a great ground game of his own, which will make Maia work harder; think more like his fight with Jason MacDonald than his demolition of all three Team Quest members or Nate Quarry. We'll certainly see the second round (I think) and perhaps even some of the stand-up Maia has been working on.

Tough draw for Miller, who will be looking at consecutive defeats after this one.

Mike Swick (14-3-0) vs. Paulo Thiago (12-1-0)

This one is easy, as I don't pick Mike Swick. Ever. Never...