Breaking down Strikeforce: Carano vs. Santos's betting odds
by Ben Zeidler on August 12, 2009

Take 2 parts women's MMA. Measure out 1 part Roger Gracie and then pour down the sink. Mix Alistair Overeem and Brett Rogers in a separate bowl - then throw that bowl out and use whatever you have laying around the house. Fabricio Werdum will do. Finally, blend in Josh Thomson until he gets hurt and then replace with entirely new ingredients. Bake at 400 degrees for a week and hope for the best.

It's been that kind of a lead up for this Strikeforce card which has seen two champions get injured, five fights get scrapped, and one bout get adopted from the crazy cousin Affliction.

Bizarre? Incredibly. But that doesn't mean money can't be made from the oddsmakers who are scrambling along with everyone else to make sense of this wild, wacky card.

Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos (-155) vs. Gina Carano (+160): Well, Strikeforce avoided this as long as possible. (Sigh...) It's time to put an end to Carano's golden run through women's MMA and the hearts of fans everywhere. The odds have this one close, but that's only a function of Carano's notoriety. The fight should not be close...at all. Santos is meaner, tougher, stronger, and more technically sound. Better looking she is not, but unfortunately, judges don't award points for beauty.

Bet 3.1 units to win 2 units.

Gegard Mousasi (-205) vs. Renato Sobral (+200): This is an interesting clash of two guys who are better than people give them credit for being. So the question is: who holds the biggest gain over their reputation? The answer is Mousasi who, despite an incredible DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix run, is still not well known outside of hardcore MMA circles. Sobral is 10 years older than Mousasi and I believe it will show in this fight. The odds have been agreeing with me, moving quickly from -160 to their current state.

Bet 2.05 units to win 1 unit.

Gilbert Melendez (-285) vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida (+225): I believe Melendez will probably take this one even though Ishida is higher on my rankings (due to more recent success). Melendez should rectify those rankings in this bout, but he's no 3:1 favorite. This is a clear case of misinformation on the part of the fans who have severely undervalued Ishida. The underdog odds are too good here to pass up.

Bet 1 unit to win 2.25 units.

Fabricio Werdum (-550) vs. Mike Kyle (+400): These odds are about right but considering the glass jaw on the Brazilian (see: UFC 90), I'm not interested in the Werdum business. Actually, I think he's a little bit overvalued here making Kyle not all that bad of a pick. I don't expect Kyle to win, but a small play can't hurt just in case history repeats itself.
Bet .5 units to win 2 units.

HOW WILL THE THIAGO ALVES VS. MARTIN KAMPMANN FIGHT END AT UFC ON FX 2?
Alves def. Kampmann via TKO/KO
Alves def. Kampmann via submission
Alves def. Kampmann via decision
Kampmann def. Alves via TKO/KO
Kampmann def. Alves via submission
Kampmann def. Alves via decision
TAKE ANOTHER POLL!