UFC 109: Punch Drunk Predictions
by E. Spencer Kyte on February 06, 2010

Saturday is upon us, which means two things: (1) it's Fight Night, and (2) it's time for another edition of the Punch Drunk Predictions. No-no, don't all applaud at once. Try to keep it to a dull roar.

After wiping the slate clean for last Saturday's Strikeforce: Miami event, my first as a full-fledged member of the Five Knuckles family, I put up an okay 4-2 record. Basically, I got the fights that were impossible to get wrong right, and went 0-2 with the fights that actually took some handicapping to predict. Whatever, at least I didn't talk myself into picking Wes Sims or Marloes Coenen or something like that.

Though this will probably be the highest my prediction percentage will ever get, the same size is too small to consider this anything more than dumb luck. Proving my mettle means making more predictions, so that is just what I'll do.

Rolles Gracie (3-0-0) vs. Joey Beltran (10-3-0)

Gave this one away a little bit in The Weigh-In yesterday, but I don't think anyone is actually expecting the guy taking the fight on super-short notice to come in and defeat the next generation of Gracie UFC fighters.

Following in the family tradition, expect Rolles to earn a submission victory in his UFC debut, spoiling the fact that Joey Beltran has one of the better nicknames out there. "The Mexicutioner" should get a second chance with the company just for being ready to take this fight so quickly...

Tim Hague (10-2-0) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (17-2-0)

It's hard for me to not pick Tim Hague. In addition to being Canadian (like me), he's been kind enough to speak to me on a couple occasions, is a very personable and likable fellow (like me?) and has a respectable all-around game.

On the other hand, Chris Tuchscherer wants to prove to everyone that the only reason he lost his last fight was because Gabe Gonzaga kept kicking him in the pills. Unless the ref is willing to give you 45 minutes and an ice pack, you're not coming back from multiple mashings of the man-bits, especially not against a quality heavyweight like Gonzaga.

Ultimately, a decision has to be made and I'm siding with the Canadian. Not because of our shared nationality, rather because he has the better all-around game and should be able to do enough to eek out a win.

Brian Stann (8-2-0) vs. Phil Davis (4-0-0)

I wouldn't fault Phil Davis if he lost this fight.

Going from fighting relative nobodies to taking on a former champion on a two-fight winning streak in your UFC debut is a big step up. Fortunately for Davis, he's facing an opponent who looks like the right kind of matchup for him on paper.

Though fights take place inside the cage and not on paper, this one should go the way many envision it, with Davis getting inside, wrestling Stann to the canvas and working hard to find an opening to end the fight. It won't be a walk in the park, but "Mr. Wonderful" should remain undefeated.

Rob Emerson (17-8-1) vs. Philippe Nover (9-2-1)

Emerson has never really impressed me, and despite his unwavering belief in himself and insistence that Nover is too confident heading into this bout, my money is on the Filipino "murse" to get the win.

Nover has a more complete all-around game; while Emerson is solid in the stand-up, Nover...

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HOW WILL THE NICK DIAZ VS. CARLOS CONDIT FIGHT END AT UFC 143
Diaz def. Condit via TKO/KO
Diaz def. Condit via submission
Diaz def. Condit via decision
Condit def. Diaz via TKO/KO
Condit def. Diaz via submission
Condit def. Diaz via decision
TAKE ANOTHER POLL!