In the UFC lightweight picture, only two facts are clear; B.J. Penn is the Champion and Kenny Florian is the number one contender.  That score will be settled at UFC 101 in Philadelphia this August.  After that, it gets a little complicated.

All indications are that the UFC is trying to get Diego Sanchez in line to take on the winner of Penn-Florian.  The "Nightmare" has two wins at lightweight over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida, respectively.  Two wins.  Sure, they're quality wins and Sanchez' fans will say that he had quality wins at welterweight and that they should  be part of the equation.  The problem with that line of thinking is that he wasn't a contender at welterweight either, otherwise he wouldn't have moved down.  He had some great wins at welterweight and at one time had fought his way to a 17-0 record but after losing consecutive fights he beat two non-contenders then cut for his lightweight debut.

If not Sanchez, then who?  Some great talent has been eliminated from the picture for now.  Guida has the loss to Sanchez, Sean Sherk lost to Frankie Edgar, Tyson Griffin lost to Sherk, Nate Diaz lost to Guida and Stevenson, Stevenson lost to Sanchez and Florian just before beating Diaz, and Roger Huerta also lost to Florian.  Got all that?  Good.  Let's continue.

Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar are the only two viable contenders left.  Conventional wisdom says Maynard has the head to head win over Edgar so he has to be they guy.  Not so fast.  That was over a year ago and Edgar has since ripped off two nice wins over fighters that were right in the thick of things (Sherk and Hermes Franca).  Maynard is 7-0 overall though, his last three wins being over Edgar, Rich Clementi, and Jim Miller.  I wouldn't exactly call it a crime if they give the next shot to Maynard but my choice is for Edgar to face the winner of Penn vs. Florian.  In this scenario, Maynard and Sanchez would then battle it out for the winner of the Edgar title fight.  We can only hope that by then the standings won't be as intricate as Chinese arithmetic.